Modest median price gains in new and existing homes, a stable interest rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage, decreased housing starts and a stable unemployment rate are some of the features of the 2007 housing forecast provided by major trade group economists as reported by The Inman News.
NAR chief economist David Lereah expects new-home sales to fall from 1.07 million units sold in 2006 to 975,000 units in 2007, which is an 8.7% decline. He cites decreased new home construction as a large contributing factor to this change. The median new home price of $238,400 in 2006 is expected to increase by 1.3 percent to $241,400 in 2007.
NAR also predicts that existing home sales figures for 2006 to end around 6.47 million units, which is an 8.6% decline from 2005. The 2007 forecast for existing home sales is 6.43 million units. The median price of existing homes in 2006 was $223,700 and is expected to increase 1.7% to $227,500 in 2007.
Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts the interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages to stay around 6.5 percent, but mortgage originations to fall 14% to $2.1 trillion.
While Lereah predicts that the unemployment rate to stay at 4.7 percent, Duncan takes it higher and believes it may reach 5.2 percent by midyear 2007. However, he concurs with Lereah in predicting modest home price gains in new and existing homes for the coming year.
The housing forecast of The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is in line with NAR and the Mortgage Bankers Association. According to David Seiders, Chief Economist at NAHB, the year 2007 will see the housing market re-adjust itself once the housing demand stabilizes, leading to a healthy balance between supply and demand.
Looking at the state level, the California Association of Realtors (CAR) projects that the median price of California homes will end 2006 around $560,700, and will decline in 2007 to $550,000 — a 1.7% drop. The number of units sold in California will end 2006 around 481,200, and is projected to decrease 447,500 in 2007. CAR predicts that the unemployment rate will stay around 5.1 percent, although interest rates on the 30-year fixed mortgage may hover around 6.7 percent in 2007.
The overall housing forecast for 2007 made by these four major real estate trade groups is not at all bad. Home buyers and investors planning to go ahead with their real estate activities can fare better with the help of a good real estate agent.
Tags: 2007, Estate, Experts, Forecast, Market, Real, Trends, U.S.In many parts of the country, home prices doubled during the period from 2000 to 2005. During this same time, creative financing programs (e.g. zero down payment, adjustable rate loans, interest only loans, option ARMs loans, negative amortization loans, etc.) gained popularity and helped some people buy homes who would not normally qualify based on their income, debt level and credit history.
Most real estate markets are now cooling, and some are even experiencing declining prices. In times of dropping real estate prices, the amount owed on a loan by some homeowners may actually exceed the value of a property. If homeowners cannot make their monthly mortgage payment, there is a potential for default on the loan and foreclosure of the property by the lender.
The term “short sales” is used to describe a situation in which a homeowner is at risk of defaulting on their loan, and the lender agrees to sell the property below the original appraisal price in order to avoid foreclosure. Most lenders do not readily agree to short sales, although exceptional circumstances such as a homeowner losing his/her job or the death of a wage-earning spouse may make some of them more open to doing so.
If a property is sold as a short sale, the lender recoups at least a portion of the original loan amount, the homeowner avoids the stress and stigma of foreclosure, and the new homebuyer gets a property below its original appraisal price. If a short sale doesn’t work, then the property usually goes into foreclosure.
Short sales may be an emerging trend as the rate of foreclosure is rising dramatically across the nation. According to Business 2.0 Magazine, the top 10 foreclosures markets are:
1. Greeley, CO
2. Detroit, MI
3. Miami, FL
4. Indianapolis, IN
5. Fort Lauderdale, FL
6. Denver, CO
7.Dayton, OH
8.Dallas, TX
9.Fort Worth, TX
10.Atlanta, GA
The credit of homeowners may be impacted after a short sale, but it all depends on how the lender reports the outcome. Some lenders report a partial loan repayment as full payment of the debt due, which does not adversely impact the credit of the borrowers. Other lenders report the sale as “settled,” which adversely and significantly impacts the borrower’s credit. The other problem is that the portion of the loan amount forgiven by the lender may actually count as taxable income by the IRS.
In summary, a successful short sale has some potential positive benefits (e.g., homeowners avoid foreclosure, lenders recoup at least a portion of the loan amount, new homebuyers gets a property at below the original appraisal price, etc), but there are also many negative consequences. Some of these potential negative consequences include: the negative impact on borrower’s credit, negative impact on the value of other similar homes in the neighborhood, and that the amount forgiven by the lender may be taxable event. Homeowners having difficulty making their monthly mortgage payment may benefit from talking to a real estate agent who is experienced in short sales.
Tags: Estate, Real, Sales, ShortIn its 4th quarter report of 2006, the real estate information site estimates the home value trends for the U.S. and 75 metropolitan areas. According to the data from http://Zillow.com, home values are now declining slightly on a year-over-year basis for the first time in a decade after years of appreciation.
Zillow’s home value data goes back to 1997 and reveals the depreciation of home value rates at 0.48 % year-over-year at the national level. The depreciation in home value every quarter is at 4.77 %. Zillow’s appreciation rate is based on the value of all homes in an area, including those that were sold.
Although there is a fall in the over-all home price growth, areas such as Seattle and Portland are experiencing a surge in home values at good appreciation rates. Besides national home values, the report also presents comprehensive data on local market price growth and decline in 75 metropolitan areas. The Zillow report gives detailed data on home value changes for counties, cities, neighborhoods and ZIP codes in U.S.A.
The top 5 metro areas with the highest price growth, year-over-year, are:
1. Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida, with an appreciation rate of 25.88 %
2. Yuma, Arizona, with an appreciation rate of 25.66 %
3. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, with an appreciation rate of 21.24 %
4. Flagstaff, Arizona, with an appreciation rate of 19.02 %
5. Ocala, Florida with an appreciation rate of 17.56 %
The 5 metropolitan areas that have the most declining home values, year-over-year, are:
1. Panama City, Florida, with a depreciation rate of 11.84 %
2. San Luis Obispo-Atascadero-Paso Robles, California, with a depreciation rate of 11.35 %
3. Punta Gorda, Florida, with a depreciation rate of 9.23 %
4. Sarasota-Bradenton, Florida, with a depreciation rate of 8.99 %
5. Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson, South Carolina, with a depreciation rate of 8.73 %
The Zillow national report also includes the top five most expensive and least expensive metro areas measured by the Zindex home value indicator.
The top 5 metro areas that are most expensive are:
1. San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, California at $684,459
2. Salinas, California at $654,503
3. Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc, California at $627,323
4. Honolulu, Hawaii at $626,452
5. Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County, California at $545,409
The top 5 metro areas that are the least expensive are:
1. Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL at $86,201
2. Peoria-Pekin, Illinois at $91,984
3. Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson, South Carolina at $96,508
4. Tulsa, Oklahoma at $97,186
5. Dayton-Springfield, Ohio at $103,729
Even within these markets, there are hot and cold housing segments of the community. Be sure to seek out the services of a local real estate agent, who can advise you about local market conditions that impact the price of homes, condos and other types of real estate.
Tags: Decreases, Estate, Increases, Markets, Price, Real
Top Stories